In this December 2025 readout, a NextGen student team working with Calpine looked for moonshot carbon capture technologies that could cut costs at natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants on a 2040 timeframe. The team reviewed about 31 technologies, completed six deep dives and interviewed experts, with coaches from Clean Air Task Force and Northrop Grumman.
Key points
- Carbon capture on gas plants is hard because flue gas is only about 4% CO2. Amine-based capture costs about $150 per ton, against an $85 per ton 45Q/45Z credit.
- The moonshot goal is a capture cost near $50 per ton, a 50% cut from today's capture component cost of about $100 per ton.
- The team recommends three companies: KC8 (potassium carbonate solvent, strongest commercial traction), Mantel (molten borate, lowest cost potential) and Ardent (hybrid membrane and sorbent).
- Many promising technologies are stuck between demonstration and deployment, and partnerships are needed to help them scale. Calpine and OpenMinds plan to engage the startups.
.svg)
.svg){kind=icon}
