An OpenMinds NextGen student team working with CenterPoint Energy studied how to speed the transition of remaining U.S. coal plants, for example through conversion to gas. The four-person team, with members from Stanford, Harvard, the University of Potsdam and the Texas LBJ School, built a framework to find the plants where action is most feasible and would cut the most emissions.
Key points
- 48 GW of U.S. coal plants have no transition plan or face significant risk of delay, and 9.6 Gt CO2e is potentially avoidable between the best and worst transition scenarios.
- Screening the 80 GW coal fleet identified 25 utility-owned priority plants. Accelerating their transition by one year could save up to 200 Mt CO2e annually.
- Three incentive types are tested in case studies: regulation-based at Fort Martin (WV), cost recovery through securitization at Pawnee (CO) and performance-based at AES Shady Point (OK), which could speed transitions by 8, 11 and 20 years.
- All of CenterPoint's coal plants except Kyger Creek are set to transition by 2030, and the team outlined options to divest that stake and go fully coal-free.
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