The July 2025 edition of the OpenMinds 'P50' Outlook forecasts energy demand, supply mix and emissions through 2035, for the world and for the U.S. Developed and reviewed by industry leaders, it gives an independent view of progress on the Dual Challenge, compares results with last year's outlook and with other major forecasts, and is refreshed annually.
Key points
- Global energy demand grows 15% by 2035 and electricity demand 50 to 60%, with renewables rising from about 17% to 26% of the energy mix.
- Global carbon emissions are peaking but decline only about 1% to roughly 37 Gt in 2035, leaving a gap of about 89 Gt versus a 1.8°C scenario.
- U.S. electricity demand grows about 3.3% a year, driven largely by AI and data center growth, and data center demand roughly doubles.
- U.S. coal generation is now about 1.6x last year's projection as surging power demand slows coal retirement, and expected 2035 wind generation is cut 14%, partly due to interconnection delays.
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