'P50' Outlook: Raymond James Energy Summit

OpenMinds presented its September 2024 'P50' Outlook at the Raymond James Energy Summit. The Outlook gives an independent view of where energy demand, supply and emissions are heading through 2035, globally and in the U.S., using the Intersect model, which finds the most cost-effective path limited by real-world constraints. Industry leaders developed and reviewed it, and it is refreshed annually to track progress against the Dual Challenge. Figures in this edition are marked preliminary.

Key points

• Global energy demand is set to grow 15% by 2035, while carbon emissions stay largely flat at about 35 Gt, leaving a gap of about 66 Gt versus a 1.8°C scenario.
• U.S. electricity demand grows 35% from 2023 to 2035, with data centers and AI reaching about 410 TWh, or 30% of incremental demand.
• U.S. emissions fall about 11% to roughly 4 Gt in 2035 as renewables nearly double to about 16% of the energy mix.
• Closing the gap calls for more firm low-carbon generation, methane abatement and carbon capture, and expanded transmission through streamlined permitting and interconnection.